Archive for TWISTEX Update

Chasing Thoughts & Recent Severe Weather

// May 23rd, 2010 // No Comments » // General Information, Severe Weather, Storm Chasing, TWISTEX Update, Weather Recap

The current pattern in the upper levels and with such amazing return of heat/humidity across the Plains states has led to one of the better patterns that chasers can hope for when they want multiple days of severe/tornadic weather. This has held true with the past two days of isolated supercell(s) that have produced tornadoes. On Saturday a lonely supercell came off of the mountainous region of southeast Wyoming and produced a couple of brief and small tornadoes. While none of the tornadoes were amazing, the storm appeared fairly impressive structure-wise and being the only storm in the area I’m sure it was a nice view for all of those in its’ presence. Yesterday, May 22, led to one of the better tornado-producing storms that has been on the Northern Plains in a while! A lone supercell for quite some time roamed eastward just south of the ND/SD border, producing multiple tornadoes and what sounds to be multiple tornadoes at the same time. Images from multiple chasers have shown a dramatic large wedge tornado that past just north of the town of Bowdle, SD. The wedge was on the ground for ~20 minutes according to some reports, which was long enough for the TWISTEX group to get some great in-situ data from various instruments and to flank the storm with mesonets to observe the environment that this tornado occurred in. I’m sure there will be some great data by the group with this storm, and from what I’m hearing is that they may have been the only research group in the area to have in-situ data. The only other ‘research’ vehicle their was Reed Timmer, however the only thing I have heard from them is that they did have their vehicle stuck on a rural road. For some reason that is unknown to me thus far, the Vortex2 crew did not chase yesterday in South Dakota despite the threat being within their predetermined domain! This I’m sure has a lo of the crew for them shaking/pounding their heads after seeing what they missed out on. There was plenty of great pictures and video from chasers in the area, several of which were of close range of the wedge tornado. Luckily there were no injuries or deaths reported thus far from the tornadoes in South Dakota…

The pattern of severe weather should continue for the next few days as well. Today’s threat over parts of western Nebraska and Kansas looks like it should produce a few supercells capable of some very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes as well. Monday’s severe weather threat over the Dakotas and Nebraska once again looks to be capable of producing tornadoes, perhaps significant ones, along with extremely large hail. While the severe weather threat looks to decrease some through the remainder of the week, there will nonetheless be the threat for a few isolated supercells capable of some very large hail and tornadoes. Later updates may detail whether the threat ever approaches eastern Kansas or western Missouri, but our first good chance of evening thunderstorms looks to come in on Tuesday.

The bigger story that has continue throughout the past few days in the storm chasing community is the lack of respect for safety and the rights of others while out on the road. Due to work and lack of funds I haven’t been out on the road during any of these latest large outbreaks, but they have been very well documented by those that have. Video surfaced from multiple sources of vehicles, some of which are known chasers, others which may be public, appearing to carelessly pass other vehicles at high rates of speed. Other undocumented cases of research vehicles failing to yield, people stopping dramatically and not pulling off of the roadway, etc… This made a few local news stations with the video, and prompted some stories from The Weather Channel on how ‘chasers’ are making it dangerous out there. It’s hard to say how many of those that were out on May 19 (when these incidents occurred) were chasers and how many were public weather-enthusiasts trying to catch their glimpse of mother nature at her finest. There is one thing that is clear, if you are going to pull some sort of stunt to get closer or get their faster the chances are it is going to be captured on video and you will be called out on it. The ramifications of all of the incidents on May 19 are yet to be known, but it undoubtedly left a bad taste in the views of many people. Once again yesterday led to the reports of a few more incidents, one of which being someone passing a state patrol vehicle in South Dakota at a high rate of speed. Now this was reported to be a chaser, but it could have easily been another member of the public trying to get the view of the reported large tornado. One thing that can’t be disputed is the report of multiple vehicles getting stuck in a wheat field after they fled a dead-end road while the tornadic storm was bearing down on them. The road was shown to be a through road, however a dramatic dead-end left many chasers, including a few veteran chasers, in a place where they definitely did not want to be. All were safe, but the story is still coming out on what the ramifications from the local farmers field that they did damage too will be. This to me goes to show how much technology can be wrong and how you have to be giving yourself more time and road options when chasing, especially when it comes to such a dangerous storm.

I’m not going to rehash a lot of the information that was already said by multiple other chasers regarding what can be done to help relieve the convergences of vehicles on the storms. Obviously a big threat seems to be the public, those of which with no experience and very little knowledge of storms and chasing, which with current technology can seemingly ‘chase’ without a problem. They have been prompted with all of the latest television series and specials regarding storm chasing, and the large Vortex2 project with has been well-broadcast by The Weather Channel. I do think that the ending of the Vortex2 project will help in regards to relieving some of the public, given there will be no Weather Channel following and reporting live with their location. However, the public will always be there and with the large number of new chasers going out on their own we will continue to see this increase in congestion on the highways. In reality, the only way I see anything decreasing the number of people on the road is going to be some sort of accident. I truly hope that this doesn’t happen, but as many others have said it seems to be inevitable at this point.

I suppose that will conclude my random thoughts on the subject… I’ll leave it with the disclaimer and plea to those with little/no experience and the public in that if you want to chase storms then please go to the training courses by the NWS and then seek out a local chaser to ride along with or pay your way onto a tour group that will help you get your feet wet.

Cap Bust??

// June 18th, 2009 // No Comments » // Storm Chasing, TWISTEX Update

With 700hPa temperatures in vicinity of the 12C range, the cap over central Iowa is quite strong… And with the ever decreasing convergence along any portion of the state it looks less and less likely that storms will fire before dark. I’ve decided to slowly work back westward towards home with an eye on the sky/radar if something does try to develop.

For now it appears that the Iowa cap will once again win over another fantastic parameter day in June…

Did manage to meet up with the TWISTEX crew and spend some time chatting with them, and grabbed a few pictures with the TIV2 as they were with the TWISTEX crew today. It was good to see all of them and hope to see you guys again!!

TWISTEX & Other Chasers

// June 10th, 2009 // No Comments » // General Information, TWISTEX Update, Weather Recap

Today was forecasted to be another potentially significant day of severe weather with an increased tornado potential across the plains states. Unfortunately for all of the groups out there that are doing research, from my TWISTEX buddies, to VORTEX2, and to all of the other chasers out there, today once again turned to be a big disappointment from a tornadoes standpoint.

The tornado reports today came across eastern Kansas during the early afternoon storms that were likely triggered and aided by the morning MCS. Other reports came across the high plains of Colorado where little risk was expected, and even a stray report in Nebraska that was a very brief and likely a landspout. Sunday was expected to be a strong day for thunderstorms and tornado potential, while the thunderstorm aspect wasn’t a disappointment with hail larger than 5 inches in diameter, the tornado reports that may have verified were all brief and weak. This year is the lowest since 2005 as far as tornado reports, and is nearly 200 tornadoes below the last 4-year average. While there are plenty of chasers who have still had a good year, most are still very disappointed in the year thus far.

Thus, I am not too disappointed that I have had to miss this years’ activities due to the birth of my first little boy. Here’s to a hope that we can continue the mediocre year well into June and into this fall over the northern plains.

While I’m on the context of other chasers including TWISTEX, I would like to give my little shout-out to the group that is chasing as a part of the Discovery Channel Storm Chasers crew. TWISTEX is being displayed as a professional and pure scientific research group, as that is what they are! Tim Samaras, Dr. Bruce Lee, Dr. Cathy Finley, and Tony Laubach among others have had some luck this year; they were able to have a successful mission out in Wyoming last week as well as many others. Be sure to follow their updates as I post them on their website: http://www.twistex.org

Severe Local Storm Conference Papers

// October 28th, 2008 // No Comments » // General Information, TWISTEX Update

The American Meteorological Society’s Severe Local Storms Conference got underway today in Savannah, Georgia. This conference features nearly a full week of presentations about every type of severe weather imaginable, from hail, lightning and tornadoes, to hurricanes and climate relations to severe storms. I was not able to go to the conference this year, but have read through several of the papers that are available online through the AMS. I thought I’d share with you some of the ones that I have found interesting, these include the talks about TWISTEX 2008, the summer research project that I have been a part of the past two years. Another paper is on the Parkersburg, IA tornado which many people may enjoy to at least look at. Of course I will also be happy to share with you a paper that I am a co-author on! If you have any questions about the papers, please leave a message here or email me (jaysonprentice(at)gmail.com).

Synoptic environments and convective modes associated with significant tornadoes in the contiguous United States
by Thompson, Grams, & Prentice

TWISTEX 2008: In situ and mobile mesonet observations of tornadoes
by Karstens et al.

Thermodynamic and kinematic analysis near and within the Tipton, KS tornado on May 29 during TWISTEX 2008
by Lee, Finley, & Samaras

Mobile mesonet observations of an intense RFD and multiple RFD gust fronts in the May 23 Quinter, Kansas tornadic supercell during TWISTEX 2008
by Finley & Lee

The Parkersburg, IA tornado
by Marshall, Jungbluth, & Baca

Fall Semester 2008

// August 24th, 2008 // No Comments » // Chase Account, General Forecast, General Information, Photography, Storm Chasing, TWISTEX Update

My final post on the blog during the summer of 2008, as I return to classes at Iowa State University tomorrow. This upcoming semester looks like it will be fairly light as far as classwork goes, having only 3 classes: American Indian Studies, Synoptic Meteorology, and Dynamic Meteorology II. But, I also have a ‘small’ project called senior thesis that I will have to be working on throughout the semester. Other credits for this semester will come from my internship at KICD Radio over the summer. I will also be starting a new internship this semester, I will be a student volunteer at the National Weather Service office in Des Moines, IA.

With my three classes, internship, and senior thesis project, along with all of the other things I usually try to do I should stay fairly busy. I have a few other things that I will like to be doing throughout the semester, including getting some finalized chase summaries on my website, instead of just my blog like they are now. I also want to try to get some new photo galleries up, maybe revamping my current galleries, and editing some previous pictures. Not to mention my potential television debut this fall with the National Geographic show that I was a part of with Tim Samaras, and another mini-show that I believe will be aired on PBS this fall.

Plenty of things going on, and I will try to keep this updated with some of those stories along with your daily weather updates that everybody enjoys. Look forward to maybe having some more photography opportunities too…

Another update with this weeks’ forecast is coming tomorrow! After a chilly start this morning…

Note: Almost forgot to mention this again, but thanks to all who visit as the blog surpassed the 10,000 visitor mark last week!

Featured in ISU News

// June 18th, 2008 // No Comments » // General Information, TWISTEX Update

An Iowa State Press Release today features your very own Iowa Chaser, Jayson Prentice. The article discusses Iowa State’s Meteorology departments’ involvement with the TWISTEX project, and includes quotes and information provided by several students that have been chasing with Tim Samaras and project TWISTEX.

Read the entire article: Iowa State News Service

Also notice, the featured image on the article is taken from the collection of images by Jayson Prentice. Just thought I’d share, as I just got the email stating that the article was released through ISU, and will also be released to local and regional news later today.

Traveling Home

// June 13th, 2008 // No Comments » // Chase Account, Photography, Storm Chasing, TWISTEX Update

On the road this morning out of Wichita, KS in-route to the soggy state of Iowa. I’m sure it has been covered extensively by all of the local and national media, so I don’t feel the need to go through all of the areas that have been getting hit hard or all the details on who/where is evacuated. Several roads are closed throughout the state, thus the route on my way home is even effected between Ames and Terril. It may be a while before we can see the rivers truly drop to levels that aren’t threatening to flood with every rainfall, even with some breaks in the storm systems.

The last two days of chasing have been frustrating to say the least with storm development being along a cold front, creating a line of storms. Wednesday storms were both linear or embedded within a line, not to mention movement to the northeast over 40 mph. We did manage one tornado out of this storm, essentially coming up on it as it formed just to our east. Otherwise some scary scud and outflow shelf formations on the storms, along with some amazing cloud-to-ground lightning.
Thursday was slightly better, even though we managed to miss the tornadoes in southern Kansas. The structure with the storms was amazing, with a great wall cloud and lightning with the first storm. Managed to capture 3 lightning strikes handheld during the day/evening; with additional strikes at night. Quite a few great panoramic images should come out of the storms yesterday, as the structure once they went outflow was impressive. One picture that I do hope turned out was an image of the striated storm just to the east of Wichita late last night. It was the best nighttime storm that I have ever personally seen, with constant thunder and lightning strikes. The storms were impressive nonetheless, it just seemed as if the storms struggled to produce beings they were in such a line fashion along the front.

On the next ~6 hours on the road I have I will likely begin to get pictures edited, see what I can manage for panoramics, and lightning. It looks like any chasing has came to an end for a while with ridging likely across the plains. Even with the ridging, it still looks like thunderstorms may be possible, however, nothing significant appears likely.

June 12 Storm Chase

// June 12th, 2008 // No Comments » // Storm Chasing, TWISTEX Update

10:15 PM Update: It sounds like we’ll finally be calling it a night, currently just about to turn northwest towards Wichita. Enjoyed the show just to the east of Wichita, beautiful striated storm that I believe I captured with some lightning illumination. Some other nice lightning strikes throughout the night, even now as we look towards our west/southwest as another storm has formed and is looking impressive. While sitting ~7 miles east of Rock, KS we did see several power flashes to our northwest, at this time its’ unknown what damage was caused and what caused it. This will be our last day for this trip, looking to head home tomorrow…

8:20 PM Update: Hanging out between Emporia and Wichita, watching the continuous line have its’ fun. The highlight of the day has likely been the light show, in which several people have gotten great shots from including Tony (already posted on his blog). We’ll likely end up spending the night in Wichita, with a hopeful view of lightning to continue our fun. One thing that I will have to post is a lot of panoramics of shelfs, and a few general storm bases with wall clouds.

5:10 PM Update: Storms have fired and we are now on the chase with storms becoming severe warned already… Heading west out of Emporia.

4:45 PM Update: Sitting in Emporia, KS; awaiting the storms to finally root in and begin to become severe/tornadic. Currently watching a broken line, or line, taking shape just to the west of us… Getting everything going in the cars and then we’ll be ready to head out and hopefully catch something a bit better than yesterday.

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10:45 AM Update: Packing stuff up to leave from Lincoln, NE; believe we’ll be taking roads down out of Nebraska City, NE and thus landing ourselves around Yates Center, KS by 3:30 PM. More updates are possible if we stop for lunch, otherwise once we arrive in the likely sunny Yates Center!

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9:45 AM Update: Although initially on the trip it looked like this would be a one-day chase event, with the very small chance of a Tuesday storm when we went into southern South Dakota, it has turned into a little more. Today’s forecast took a nice turn into being a little more active, especially for the threat of tornadoes today in southeastern Kansas. The entire group is ready for an actual supercell that is not embedded within some long line, and one that we can actually obtain data on. That is the goal for today, leaving Lincoln, NE sometime around 11 AM to head south into Kansas and begin one last day of chasing before a ridge sets in and the TWISTEX crew will likely be down for a while. More updates later as the forecast becomes more defined, as well as our route…

June 11 Storm Chase

// June 11th, 2008 // No Comments » // Storm Chasing, TWISTEX Update

12:45 AM Update: A very long day today, chased storms throughout southeast Nebraska. The entire line of storms were tornado warned, from southwest Minnesota to north-central Kansas. Ends up to be a very sad day today with a scout camp north of Little Sioux, IA that is all over the news. Also it sounds like several other areas, including metro areas, that took hits tonight. I missed all of the action in northwest Iowa today, but from the sounds of it, nobody could see anything with such heavy rain wrapping around these storms. Also with such a massive line moving northeast, it was nearly like watching the storm go by and awaiting the next… A full update tomorrow is possible, however, at this time I do know what the plan is for the day.

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2:30 PM Update: Drove south for a ways along I29, have now found ourselves near Missouri Valley, IA. Have ate a nice dinner, but are still awaiting on something to become clear on which target (northwest Iowa or southeast Nebraska) will be better. At this point, it is still a wait to see which one will take shape, however, the the target of southern Nebraska and Iowa does look favorable at the moment.

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11:00 AM Update: Just as an FYI, blog updates will be fairly sporadic beings I’ll be with Tony. Don’t want to have too many computers (3), GPS’s (3), among everything else going on. So feel free to browse Tony’s Blog as well for updates on my status. I will update when possible/needed.

10:30 AM Update: The group got together this morning at 9 AM to discuss target areas for the day. Fairly large, but disorganized, complex of storms is working through areas of western Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, and even as far south as northwestern Missouri. This complex looks to be well off of the boundary that is currently situated in central Nebraska. Behind this complex of storms and ahead of this boundary, moisture has already surged northward with fairly clear skies as well. As the storms continue eastward, similar things should happen to much of the Missouri River Valley; allowing for substantial moisture and instability to setup for the afternoon hours.

Current plan looks to have us heading south along I29 to get out of the cloud deck that just won’t leave this morning. The forecast definitely does not look ‘great’, but given if things can fall together it could certainly be a productive day. No real target as of this moment, we’ll likely head south within the next hour and reevaluate throughout the afternoon (early) before things start to take form.

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12:00 AM Update: After treating today as a position day, certainly have to get something nice tomorrow although the forecast looks ‘interesting’ to say the least. Overnight convection, MCS’s, may form both through eastern South Dakota into Minnesota and in extreme northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Currently, it looks as though both are having a hard time sustaining themselves into any type of severe mode. Cells that initially fired in northern Kansas are weakening, and the small development in vicinity of York, NE also cannot sustain itself at the moment. Although low level jet increasing would aid in their development, even if they do I feel that they would be well east of the Missouri River area by morning. This to me indicates that the latest model run by the NAM/WRF (00z) is not worth looking at too closely. They keep a large complex of storms around the Missouri valley through into the early afternoon tomorrow, much unlike anything that currently seems to be logical. With this complex hanging around the is supposed warm sector, it destroys any parameters that you would like to look at as far as surface goes…

The GFS thus is the favored at this point, although it still develops the MCS in eastern Nebraska, it moves it through central Iowa by early afternoon. This is a logical solution given storms speeds, etc. and thus is at least believable. This would leave a viable target area anywhere in the eastern third of Nebraska, moving into the western third of Iowa during the later afternoon, and evening hours. A lot of questions to still be answered come morning, but right now it looks like the day may be filled with excitement.

I will be the TWISTEX vehicle, with Tony Laubach, so beings both him and I are bloggers, be sure to check out his blog when I’m not available for updates while driving. Anything that he sees or reports, I will be right there to see the same things… Good night from Sioux City!

June 10 Storm Chase (Travel Day)

// June 10th, 2008 // No Comments » // Severe Weather Forecast, Storm Chasing, TWISTEX Update

6:45 PM Update: Well after ‘wasting’ some time in Yankton, SD; it has been determined that today just isn’t going to happen due to abysmal moisture return. The day is now a positioning day for tomorrow’s potential outbreak of severe weather across portions of Nebraska and Iowa. Now in-route to Sioux City, IA where we will spend the night relaxing and looking at tomorrows forecast. An update may come later tonight pertaining to the forecast for Wednesday, but today appears to be about 99.9% over.

2:00 PM Update: I’ve caught my ride with the other ISU team members, Brandon Engelson and Mark Ketcham, and have continued towards our meeting point of Yankton, SD. Currently heading through Sioux City, with less than an hour and a half before meeting up and arranging vehicles once again. Today’s forecast is still questionable, as moisture return thus far seems to be struggling with only mid 50s for much of Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Another update likely once we meet up in Yankton (~4 PM)…

9:15 AM Update: Although the day doesn’t look great for tornadoes, the chances of a nice isolated supercell capable of large hail and some gusty winds is fairly high. A warm front will become situated across portions of southern South Dakota, and southwestern Minnesota over the afternoon hours. This front combined with a weak wave in the flow will allow for thunderstorm development along and to the north, mainly over areas of South Dakota, but as far east as the southwestern quarter of Minnesota and northwest Iowa in the later evening or overnight hours. The current chase plan is a target of Yankton, SD by mid-afternoon, then to re-adjust there during the afternoon as we await initiation.

Current RUC forecast from 12z paints a nice picture for a storm along the boundary in southern South Dakota. But, the caveat to this model picture is that moisture return via its’ forecast may be substantially high (>5 degrees). This would cause a dramatic decrease in overall instability over the area, and an overall weakening of otherwise great potential. At this point, it seems like the moisture return will be the limiting factor today. Nonetheless, thunderstorm initiation is expected late this afternoon, or evening in southern South Dakota. Based on current 12z data that is in thus far, I’m leaning towards a target of Winner, SD!