Severe Plains

Winter Hasn’t Left Yet…

// March 25th, 2011 // No Comments » // General Forecast, Severe Winter Weather, Winter Weather

A week of spring-like weather, in fact a week with above average spring-like weather, left quite a few people thinking that it was here to stay and that white-stuff we call snow is done for the season once again. However, that is definitely not the case with the calendar only stating March 25 from where I’m sitting. There are at least 3 more systems that I see coming down the chute towards the Central Plains that will have serious winter weather potential for areas of Kansas and Missouri, and of course the Plains states further north. In fact, a quick moving disturbance last night left some areas from eastern Nebraska, northern and eastern Missouri under a bit of snow and slush last night and early this morning. Now, another system is taking aim on the Central Plains for tomorrow and it will once again bring slushy snow accumulations to areas of northeast Kansas, northern and central Missouri; as well as those areas to the north.

Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued by a few National Weather Service offices for parts of northern and central Missouri, as well as west-central Illinois for tomorrow. As a disturbance moves into the region a plume of moist air will interact with the increasing ascent ahead of this wave, bringing showers and even thunderstorms into southern Missouri. Simultaneously, a secondary area of precipitation is likely over eastern Nebraska which will bring additional snowfall to those areas that saw 1-4 inches last night. As the showers and thunderstorms move north and east Saturday morning they will continue to encounter colder air at the surface and aloft, adding in some evaporative cooling and the latest forecast soundings suggest a fairly long duration of light to moderate snow over parts of Missouri. The saving grace for most areas will be that a bulk of the snowfall occurs during the afternoon, with temperatures above freezing and surface temperatures likely also hovering just above 32 degrees. This will allow most of the snow to melt or become very slushy on most surfaces, however models are indicating that some periods of moderate snow that may occur near or just north of I-70 during the afternoon could bring snowfall fast enough to bring quick accumulations on grassy surfaces and others that are just cold enough…

Overall, a good 1-3 inches of slushy accumulations appears likely for areas of Kansas City and eastward along I-70 through St. Louis… With higher amounts certainly plausible depending upon precipitation intensity and change-over times of a rain/snow mix to all snow. Localized amounts of 4-5 inches aren’t out of the question north of I-70 where they the coldest air and best dynamics intersect. So, let this be a lesson to those spring-lovers who gave up on winter, it hasn’t left yet!!

Quick Hitter…

// March 16th, 2011 // No Comments » // General Forecast, Severe Winter Weather, Weather Recap, Winter Weather

A swift winter storm swept across areas of Kansas and Missouri late Sunday into Monday, leaving some areas in northeast Kansas and central Missouri under as much as 9 inches of snow!! Computer models had struggled with precipitation with a ‘weak’ disturbance that was expected to move across the region Sunday night, with some indications from local National Weather Service offices to drop the potential for precipitation altogether on Friday. It wasn’t until Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night and Sunday morning that models converged on increasing potential for precipitation with this disturbance. As the disturbance continued to be sampled there was the also the realization that much of this precipitation may fall as heavy wet snow, despite air temperatures being just above freezing at the surface. The models did continue to struggle with precipitation type, with some even showing rainfall despite the precipitation already falling as snow.

Regardless, a heavy wet snow fell across much of northeast Kansas and across the I-70 corridor in Missouri where two areas of localized snowfall amounts greater than 6 inches fell. The one in Kansas near and just northwest of Manhattan, while areas from Columbia to just west of St. Louis also saw these heavy amounts. Despite the heavy wet snow, surface air temperatures remained above freezing and most surfaces (highways, etc.) also remained above freezing allowing for mainly wet roads or some slushy accumulations. With temperatures rising back up quickly on Tuesday under sunny skies most snow has already melted, with perhaps just a few spotty areas in those heavier bands featuring snow still on the ground. Temperatures will continue to rise tomorrow which will likely rid any lingering snow pack quickly.

Well above average temperatures will arrive by St. Patrick’s day across the Central Plains with high temperatures in the 70s and even 80s over central/western Kansas. A weak cold front will push into the area leaving temperatures a bit cooler for the weekend, however still likely above normal. Then, looking towards late this weekend and early next week brings an unsettled weather pattern into the Plains with increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms. The severe weather threat also looks to be on the increase with extended range models showing strong southwest flow with a trough in the Western US, leading to the development of surface lows and drylines that may move across the western Plains. More details on this potential as it nears, otherwise for now it’s time to enjoy some above average temperatures and sunny skies!!

Been A Long Time…

// February 21st, 2011 // No Comments » // General Forecast, General Information, Severe Winter Weather, Weather Recap, Winter Weather

I’ve been lacking in the updating of the blog if you couldn’t tell… There has been a few big changes in the weather since my last update, one of which occurring now across the Central Plains. Well above average temperatures over the past week led to numerous records both on Thursday last week and just yesterday across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa and adjacent states. The next storm system worked its’ way into the region yesterday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the warm sector and a large swath of wintry precipitation to areas of northern Nebraska and Iowa, the Dakotas and Minnesota. Snow accumulations nearing a foot and blizzard conditions occurred across eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota; signifying that winter has definitely not exited.

Beyond our storm system ongoing and exiting the area, it looks like we’ll see a couple more days of calm and warming weather through Wednesday. Then, our next storm system will take aim at the Plains bringing wintry precipitation (potentially significant) back into the forecast… Another storm system next weekend also looks to have some wintry precipitation as well, signifying a more active period with wintry accumulations.

In other news, more of personal nature, the family and I have been busy the past few weeks with other projects. One of which is the purchase of our first home, which will be in Gardner, Kansas!! I’ll be sure to post some sort of update once we close and begin to move-in, but it is great news for the family and I as we move into our first home and enjoy the space and the yard!!

I’ll try to update more often, enjoy the return of the cold air!

Jan. 31 – Feb. 2 Winter Storm

// February 2nd, 2011 // No Comments » // Severe Winter Weather, Storm Updates, Weather Recap, Winter Weather

The winter storm across the Central Plains is winding down with generally light snow still ongoing over parts of Missouri and Iowa. The winds however are maintaining intensities above 20 mph sustained with gusts to near 40 mph still late tonight and that will likely continue into the afternoon today. This will keep the blowing and drifting snow ongoing and likely continue the hazardous travel conditions across a large portion of the Plains. This storm will continue to cause problems for areas of the Midwest, but the biggest impacts with blizzard conditions appear to be subsiding as this storm wraps up and occludes.

Snowfall began just after sunrise on Monday across Kansas City and continued to increase throughout the morning. Some of the heaviest snow came during the mid-afternoon as snowfall fell at a rate of 2-3 inches per hour. Total snowfall amounts at the moment appear to be 9-14″ across the Kansas City Metro, with the lightest amounts north and heaviest south and especially southeast. As indicated, a swath of 20″ of snow did fall with this storm system from far southwest Missouri through areas of west-central, central and into northeast Missouri with drifts several feet high. Despite the numerous warning and attempts to warn public of the dangers there were still a large number of accidents across Missouri, with I-70 being closed across the entire state Monday evening.

I’ll provide links to all of the snowfall maps and summaries from local weather services offices once they become available. I also have a time lapse of the winter storm as seen from Lenexa, KS that I will post sometime today or perhaps tomorrow!

Potentially Historic Winter Storm…

// January 31st, 2011 // No Comments » // General Forecast, Severe Weather, Severe Winter Weather, Winter Weather

The winter storm that is going to impact areas from New Mexico and the Texas panhandle through areas of Kansas and Missouri and into the Midwest and areas of Illinois could be of historic proportions. This winter storm is quickly garnering the attention of everyone with its’ potential for over TWO FEET of snow for areas of Missouri and Illinois and blizzard or near-blizzard conditions on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Along with record-breaking snowfall amounts, a significant ice and sleet event also appears likely from Oklahoma and Arkansas through southern Missouri and into Illinois as well. Even severe weather will be possible with this storm in the Southern Plains and the Gulf Coast Monday and Tuesday…

There are too many details to go through, but it is safe to see that it is going to be a very busy week for meteorologists and the public alike in forecasting and then digging or scraping out of this winter storm. For the Kansas City area, areas of freezing drizzle tonight will continue through the day tomorrow and into the overnight. A mix of drizzle and light snow appears possible Monday night before transitioning to all snow by Tuesday morning. Then, moderate to heavy snow and near-blizzard conditions are expected through the morning and afternoon Tuesday with snowfall amounts looking to range in 10-16″ across the metro with even higher amounts just southeast. A swath of 16-20″ with amounts perhaps nearing 24″ does appear to occur from southeast Kansas, just south and east of Kansas City Metro and across the state into Quincy, Illinois. Snowfall will come fast and furious with the potential for thundersnow definitely possible in this heaviest band. Just south of this heaviest band, significant snowfall is still expected with the potential for some sleet accumulations as well. Further south near the I-44 corridor and southward across southern Missouri there will be the potential for a significant ice storm with ice accumulations near 1″ definitely possible.

I am going to try to archive this potentially historic snowstorm, perhaps with a time lapse of the snowfall and the event! It will be a busy couple of days, so the only updates I provide may be brief via Twitter.

Next Winter Storm…

// January 28th, 2011 // No Comments » // General Forecast, Severe Winter Weather, Weather Recap, Winter Weather

A strong disturbance looks to once again impact the Plains states early next week, in what could be copious amounts of snow and halting freezing rain to areas of the Central and even Southern Plains. But first, take a look at the high temperatures from today across the Central Plains where nearly 70 degrees was felt over much of western and central Kansas, to the 50s and 60s over the eastern third. Missouri ranged from the mid 60s in the southwest to near 40 in the northeast where snow depth remains nearly a foot. The snow was obviously a culprit in why temperatures didn’t reach as high as they could have today, although the lack of gusty winds also contributed to a lack of mixing and thus cooler temperatures than we could have seen as well. Nonetheless, snow depth across the Central Plains took a significant hit this afternoon and will continue to dwindle a bit over the weekend as temperatures still manage to reach above freezing each afternoon.

As far as our next winter storm goes, we will see the potential come in two waves if you may. The first will be with general warm and moist advection ahead of the system, with warmer and moist air moving north and above the colder surface air. This setup means areas of Kansas and Missouri will be in prime position for a duration of freezing drizzle or even freezing rain on Monday, and although accumulations look to be on the light-side we will only need a glaze to make conditions hazardous out there. Take a look at this model forecast sounding from the latest NAM for downtown Kansas City:

This setup isn’t necessarily the ideal setup for freezing drizzle, as temperatures actually never rise above freezing at any level. So, how is it we are getting liquid precipitation falling? In order to have snow we need ice crystals, and ice crystals form within a layer of typically -10 to -20 degrees Celsius. The sounding above has this layer highlighted on the temperature profile (red line) as a pink portion. In order to have ice crystals and snow growth, this layer must be saturated; essentially the green line (moisture) must be very close to the red line (temperature). As you can see above this is not the case and we have no ice crystals present, but if you look at the lower portion of the sounding you can see that we are saturated through the lowest 200mb and that is typically enough to warrant drizzle or perhaps brief light precipitation. Since we have drizzle or light precipitation, but no snow crystals and surface temperatures below freezing we would expect freezing drizzle!

After that lesson, let’s move onto the brunt of the potentially significant winter storm for the Plains. A strong disturbance moving out of the Arizona and Southwestern US will push east-northeast into the Southern Plains by Tuesday and then quickly exit to the northeast into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. A strong surge of gulf moisture will accompany this system, thus moisture will not be a problem at any level of the atmosphere by Tuesday. With the low pressure tracking across Arkansas and into the Tennessee Valley we would see a favorable setup for significant snow across parts of southeast Kansas and southern Missouri. Models are actually in surprisingly good agreement with the location and in decent agreement regarding the timing and overall QPF amounts. Thus, confidence is increasing for every forecaster for a band of heavy snow on Tuesday that could lead to snow totals of nearly a foot of snow! Personally, at this point it appears that the best potential for this swath of heavy snow will be from near Wichita, KS across central Missouri and just north of St. Louis. On either side of this heavier band will still be significant snowfall amounts, but a rather sharp gradient is expected on the northern side with a strong high pressure blasting down cold and dry air to limit the snowfall progression northward. There is still a lot of time for this system that is currently well offshore in the Pacific Ocean, but it certainly appears that it could be one heck of a snowstorm for someone with the addition of gusty or even windy conditions on Tuesday thanks to the strong pressure gradient between the deepening surface low and strong high pressure to the north.

Along with the blanketing snowfall, there could also be a pretty significant swath of mixed precipitation and freezing rain from Oklahoma through southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. These areas could see rain, sleet, freezing rain and then finally snow before the system exits and could wreak havoc on travel conditions. Definitely a system to keep an eye on and I’ll try to provide an additional update this weekend as to where this significant snowfall or ice could occur before another strong blast of Arctic air arrives for the rest of next week.

Quiet Time?!?

// January 24th, 2011 // No Comments » // General Forecast, Severe Winter Weather, Weather Recap, Winter Weather

Last Wednesday and Thursday a winter storm moved through the Northern and Central Plains, dropping over a half foot of snow from Nebraska through northeast Kansas, across Missouri and into Illinois. While this band of snow was relatively narrow, the amount of snow was record setting with Topeka, Kansas City and St. Louis among others setting daily snowfall records and pushing this January into the top 10 or better of snowiest on record. Take a look at the links below for more details on the storm and snowfall maps from local National Weather Service offices:

Omaha NWS
Topeka NWS
Kansas City NWS
St. Louis NWS

Another unique winter storm impacted the area this weekend, with an impressive band of snowfall over southeast Nebraska and northeast Missouri. A swath of 4-6″ with even higher amounts near 8″ fell across this area, with some of the heaviest amounts near the Omaha metro. This system slowly sagged southward towards Kansas City Saturday night, however snowfall was only seen over the northeast half of the Metro while the southeast half generally saw a dusting to only flurries. This quick gradient was very unique given the low pressure system and mid-level features were still further west, which is typically a good indicator of where the gradient of snow will be. A surprisingly strong push of dry air also was pulled into the system, which was fairly unorganized, that led to dramatically lower snowfall amounts from the southern Kansas City Metro and across central Missouri towards St. Louis. The Omaha NWS put together a page for this event as well, with the narrow band of significant snowfall occurring over their region.

Now looking ahead, a generally quiet period is expected for at least the next week as dry air remains over the region. Although weak disturbances will pass through the lack of moisture in the mid-levels will lead to flurries at best. Some warmer and moist air at the surface will also work into the area, which may lead to some areas of dense fog or light drizzle and with temperatures below freezing at night we could see some slickness overnight across the Central Plains. Otherwise, a generally quiet week with very warm temperatures for Friday just ahead of our next strong cold front. With well above normal temperatures on Friday the weekend will be a dramatic drop as temperatures return to their seemingly status quot of below normal.

Jan. 19-20 Winter Storm

// January 19th, 2011 // No Comments » // Severe Winter Weather, Winter Weather

A winter storm is currently ongoing and spreading eastward across the Central Plains this afternoon, with significant snowfall amounts expected by Thursday morning across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and even further south and east. Snow developed last night over western Nebraska and spread south and east this morning into southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. This will continue to be the case this afternoon as snow moves across the Kansas City area and into Missouri, reaching central Missouri this evening and near the Mississippi River late this evening or early overnight.

Snowfall over areas of northeast Kansas and southern Missouri have been moderate to even heavy at times this morning, and these heavier bands of snow will continue into the evening across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. This means snow at times may come down at 1″ per hour or greater rates, leading to quick accumulations and hazardous driving conditions. Total snowfall amounts will vary greatly on the northern edge of this storm system, with only a couple of inches across far southern Iowa to over 5″ over northern Missouri. A widespread swath of 3-5″ appears likely with this system across all of Missouri, much of northern and southeastern Kansas, and western/central and southeast Nebraska. Within this larger swath there will be an area of higher snowfall totals, where the moderate and heavier band will work through this afternoon and evening. This swath does appear to go through much of the Kansas City Metro, and following along and north of I-70 in Missouri as well as north of I-70 across northeast Kansas; where 5-7″ and perhaps even a few isolated higher amounts are possible.

I’ll provide an update sometime tomorrow afternoon with some of the snow totals to see who lucked out with the heavier amounts, and who is seeing another round of school/activity cancellations.

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Jan. 9-11 Winter Storm Summary

// January 11th, 2011 // No Comments » // Severe Winter Weather, Weather Recap, Winter Weather

Accumulating snowfall has ended across most of the Plains states, although some light snowfall may still lead to minor accumulations across eastern Iowa yet this afternoon. A long duration of light to moderate snow began Saturday across Nebraska, and slowly progressed across Kansas and Iowa on Sunday and through Missouri on Monday. This snowfall led to widespread significant accumulations, and with the snowfall continuing at a steady rate many cancellations and traveling problems were noted across the states involved. With the snow now ending, strong northwest winds are ushering in an arctic air mass that is not only leading to dangerous wind chill values across the Central Plains but also blowing around the fresh and very powdery snow that has fell over the last 24-48 hours.

Generally the event did not feature anything significant, rather a long duration of light to moderate snow that accumulated over a long period of time. Typically when receiving such significant snowfall amounts there is usually bursts of heavy snow, and mesoscale processes that lead to isolated higher amounts. This event featured none of those, thus a general swath of snowfall over many states. I’ve included several preliminary snowfall total images from local National Weather Service offices…

1/9-11 Winter Storm Update

// January 10th, 2011 // No Comments » // Severe Winter Weather, Storm Updates, Winter Weather

Snow has spread eastward overnight into central Iowa and northwest Missouri where several inches of snow has already accumulated over these areas. Many more hours of snow is still expected for these areas, with significant snowfall accumulations still appearing likely. Here in Kansas City a widespread 2-3″ of snow has fell by dawn, with around 12 more hours of steady snow expected. Total accumulations should range from 6-10″ by the time the steady snow tapers to flurries this evening…

The snow should continue to spread eastward today, through Iowa and Missouri by this evening and into Illinois. While snow accumulations are not expected to be as high over eastern portions of the states, accumulations will still be high enough to cause widespread travel problems and likely cause many cancellations of evening activities and at least delay Tuesday’s start to the day for many. With a bit of an increase in winds on Tuesday this fresh snow will also blow and drift during the day, leading to continued travel problems.

With roads already snow covered, and only becoming worse with time it is best to avoid travel if possible. Multiple wrecks have already occurred yesterday and this morning over the snow covered roads…

Current Road Conditions:

Nebraska – http://www.511.nebraska.gov/atis/html/index.html
Iowa – http://hb.511ia.org/main.jsf
Missouri – http://www.modot.org/tim/
Kansas – http://511.ksdot.org/KanRoadPublic_VE/Default.aspx