Severe Plains

Meteorological Winter Ending

// February 29th, 2012 // No Comments » // General Information, Weather Recap, Winter Weather

A strong storm system has produced several damaging tornadoes that have resulted in multiple deaths and injuries across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and now into the Kentucky and other nearby areas.  I will likely have an update on all of the severe weather over the past 24 hours at a later time when damage surveys and official numbers have been confirmed…

Thanks to the leap year we get one extra day of meteorological winter this year (compared to the past 3 years).  This won’t help anyone in Kansas or Missouri with their winter snowfall, but it is helping some across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and other nearby areas along with areas of the Great Lakes & Northeast.  The meteorological winter is going to come to an end in Kansas City with only 3.1″ of snow which will rank as the 5th lowest snowfall on record (2.2″ occurred in 1991-92).  In the previous post I posted a ratio that I calculated, inches of snow per inch of liquid precipitation, in an attempt to show years in which we’ve still had precipitation but just a lack of snow.

Kansas City has added on 1.30″ of liquid precipitation since that last update while only seeing a few flurries, pushing the liquid precipitation for the meteorological winter to 6.22″ while leaving snowfall at the 3.1″ as mentioned above.  What does this do to the ratio, it dropped from 0.6301 to 0.4984 – Essentially per liquid inch of precipitation this winter Kansas City saw less than a half inch of snow.  My previous post included the detail that the average ratio for all 123 years of record in Kansas City was 3.83.  The drop to 0.4984 didn’t change the ranking that the 2011-12 season had (it’s still 3rd) but it is much closer.

For some details, we can take a look at the 5 least snowiest meteorological winters in Kansas City and see how their ratios’ compare:

Comparing the 5 least snowiest seasons you can see that 2 of the 5 had a lack of precipitation to go along with the lack of snowfall, 1919-20 & 1022-23 had correlations that were well above 2 and therefore not an extreme anomaly compared to the average.  These two seasons simply had a lack of precipitation overall.  The other two seasons are ranked first and second ahead of this latest season in their correlation, with precipitation still occurring across the area but just a plain lack of snowfall similar (or actually worse) than this year.

This ends another math filled and interesting perspective on the winter (or lack thereof) in Kansas City!

Winter Snowfall vs Precipitation

// February 22nd, 2012 // No Comments » // General Information, Winter Weather

Snowfall has definitely been lacking for many areas of the United States this year, with cities running well below average for snowfall to go along with near-record warmth. But, have these cities been looking at a lack of snowfall due to a complete lack of precipitation? I chose a few cities that have been lacking on snowfall and compared their overall precipitation to see if its’ just been dry, or just not cold enough. Then, dug deep into the data for Kansas City to see how snowfall and precipitation compare for this winter and winters’ past.

First, a look at how this years’ lack of snowfall compared to overall precipitation for the meteorological winter season (December-February):

Looking through the data above you can see that many areas are not lacking on precipitation for the winter months, although there are areas that are below normal across the board (Springfield, M and Twin Cities, MN).  You can make the argument that the cold air has simply not been in place when precipitation has arrived this winter, for example, Topeka is well above average for precipitation during this winter however they are well below normal when it comes to snowfall.  A similar case can be made for Kansas City, Columbia, St. Louis and even Chicago for that matter.

I took this one step further for Kansas City, creating a correlation between winter season snowfall and winter season precipitation (Inches of snowfall per Inches of Precipitation) that would roughly show if a season is lacking precipitation & snowfall, just lacking snowfall or had plenty of snowfall and precipitation.  Data was available for the Kansas City area from this season (2011-12) all the way back to the winter season of 1889-90. The average for all 123 seasons was 14.83″ of snow and 4.17″ of precipitation for a correlation of 3.83, which essentially means for every 1″ of liquid precipitation the average winter season has 3.83″ of snowfall.  Here are the past 10 seasons:

Now that you see all of the numbers, what do they mean?  The past two seasons’ correlations were nearly 3 times larger than normal (3.83) which shows that more precipitation was falling as snow than what we would normally expect during the winter season.  This correlation number is backed up when looking at the raw snowfall and precipitation numbers, while snowfall was much higher than normal the precipitation values were not, therefore giving us the higher correlation.  This is also true for the inverse, both this season and 2004-05 had low correlations indicating that while we still had normal (or above normal) precipitation values there was not as much of this falling as now as what is typical.  So how do the correlations rank, which season was snowiest compared to precipitation and what season got the least amount of snow out of the most precipitation?  Well, the past two seasons actually feature the highest correlations which indicates that we squeezed the most snow per inch of precipitation than any other season in history!  But, to look at this season we are going to have to look at which seasons’ produced the least amount of snow per inch of precipitation:

Least Snowfall per Inch of Precipitation

1) 1930-31  -  0.1818 (0.5″ of Snow with 2.75″ of Precip)
2) 1991-92  -  0.4151 (2.2″ of Snow with 5.30″ of Precip)
3) 2011-12  -  0.6301 (3.1″ of Snow with 4.92″ of Precip)
4) 1994-95  -  0.9934 (4.5″ of Snow with 4.53″ of Precip)
5) 2004-05  -  1.2311 (6.5″ of Snow with 5.28″ of Precip)

The correlation for this year can still get lower, or higher, depending upon how much precipitation we can add without adding to our snowfall.  Hope you enjoyed this math-filled post relating snowfall and precipitation…

Strong Thunderstorms (Feb. 20, 2012)

// February 21st, 2012 // No Comments » // Severe Weather, Weather Recap

Strong to severe thunderstorms rolled through parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri yesterday afternoon and evening producing marginally severe hail over parts of Oklahoma and central Kansas as well as wind damage throughout those 3 states.  Unfortunately, damaging winds flipped over a mobile home to the east of Ada, OK where 1 woman died. Check out all of the strong to severe reports on the image below (click image to view details on reports):

Wind gusts were the primary threat as these thunderstorms rolled across the Kansas City Metro last evening, although some small graupel was mixed in with the rain as well.  Note, I call this graupel rather than hail as the ice falling was not hard, rather as it would hit windows or other objects it would essentially melt or fall apart on contact.  I took a quick snapshot with my phone as this disintegrating graupel built up on the windows.

Wind gusts across the Metro were as follows:

KCI Airport – 54 mph
Olathe, KS (KOJC) – 52 mph
Olathe, KS (Public) – 50 mph
Lee’s Summit – 45 mph
Gardner, KS – 41 mph
Downtown KC – 41 mph

Kansas City Snowfall Records Update

// February 14th, 2012 // No Comments » // General Information, Winter Weather

Kansas City International Airport officially reported 2.4″ of snow on February 13, 2012 after only accumulating 0.7″ of snow for the season previously.  This marks February 13, 2012 as the date the 2011-2012 season officially exceeded the 1″ of snow for the season and the date of the first 1″ snowfall event for the city.  Here’s a final summary of where this ranks all-time:

Latest Date of 1″ of Accumulation for Season

1) 1930-31  -  March 1
2) 2011-12  -  February 13
3) 1933-34  -  February 11
4) 1922-23  -  February 10
5) 1988-89  -  February 4

Latest Date for First 1″ Snowfall

1) 1930-31  -  March 6
2) 1933-34  -  February 24
3) 1910-11  -  February 18
4) 2011-12  -  February 13
5) 1922-23  -  February 10

Another record we can also watch is the least snowiest season on record, here are the top 10 least snowiest seasons for Kansas City:

Least Snowiest Season

1) 1922-23:  4.5″
2) 1949-50:  5.5″
3) 1988-89:  6.9″
3) 1994-95:  6.9″
5) 1933-34:  7.2″
6) 1920-21:  7.3″
7) 1950-51:  8.0″
8) 2001-02:  8.6″
8) 1907-08:  8.6″
10) 2002-03:  9.4″

2011-12:  3.1″ through February 13

Winter Storm: Feb. 12-14

// February 14th, 2012 // No Comments » // Weather Recap, Winter Weather

One of the biggest winter storms of the season for areas of Kansas and Missouri, although by most standards just a general good snowfall over the region.  Snowfall occurred in two general areas, one over Nebraska and Iowa where the heaviest snowfall occurred and another over a more progressive snow across Kansas and Missouri.  A general long-duration moderate snow to the north of the upper level disturbance was the culprit for as much as 6.2″ of snow in Sioux City, Iowa.  Other nearby amounts included 5″ in Spencer, Cherokee and Emmetsburg in Iowa; 4″ in Holstein (IA) and lesser amounts for Des Moines (~1.5″) and Omaha (~1″).

A more progressive swath of snow occurred over areas of Kansas and Missouri, with occasional bands of moderate to even heavy snow at times.  Snow mainly occurred over eastern Kansas, along and east of I-135/Highway 81 with much higher amounts to the south.  The Wichita, KS area was brought to a halt by moderate snow Sunday night when it accumulated rapidly on all surfaces, causing multiple accidents and nearly shutting down Kellogg Avenue.  The Kansas City area saw snow develop shortly after Midnight and continue into the Monday morning rush hour, generally 1.5-2.5″ of snow fell across the KC Metro.  Slightly heavier snow fell over parts of southwest Missouri, into central and east-central Missouri where 2-4″ was reported including 2.7″ in Columbia and 2.5″ in Jefferson City.  The St. Louis Metro took on moderate to occasionally moderate snow during the evening rush hour on Monday, when snowfall rates were in the 1-2″ per hour.  Total snowfall amounts typically were between 1.5-2.5″ for most of the St. Louis Metro.

Other than the snowfall, prolonged areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle were also prevalent with this storm system that cause some additional issues for some.  In Gardner (my house) we measured up 1.6″ of snow with the event with a nice glaze of freezing drizzle during the day on Monday to create a crust on the snowfall.

The snowfall won’t last long for many with temperature already rising into the 40s today over Kansas and Missouri, then the next storm system moving in on Wednesday that will bring rain and maybe even a rumble of thunder or two to some areas.  Some light snow is possible with this system as well, but nothing too significant at this point is expected.

If you want to take a look at all of the snowfall reports from the past 48 hours over Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa check out the link here:  Local Storm Report App

Catching Up… Accumulating Snow?!?

// February 9th, 2012 // No Comments » // General Information

I’ve promised myself to the return of the Severe Plains blog & overall website for the coming year and more. The updates won’t be as frequent as they have in the past, but the goal will be a post a week or so to cover what has or is happening in the weather with perhaps some other subjects mixed in as well.

Last Saturday night into Sunday we managed some snowfall after all for parts of Kansas City with Kansas City International Airport recording 0.3″ of snowfall. Other parts of the Kansas City Metro recorded that dusting of snow as well, while down here in Gardner we managed some light snow at times but nothing could accumulate leaving us with only a Trace. That 0.3″ of snow up at KCI brought their seasonal total to 0.7″ which is still well below normal for the year and still climbing up on the record charts.

Latest Date of 1″ of Accumulation for Season

1) 1930-31  -  March 1
2) 1933-34  -  February 11
3) 1922-23  -  February 10
4) 2011-12  -  February 8
5) 1988-89  -  February 4

Latest Date for First 1″ Snowfall

1) 1930-31  -  March 6
2) 1933-34  -  February 24
3) 1910-11  -  February 18
4) 1922-23  -  February 10
5) 2011-12  -  ???

Accumulating snowfall is not expected today, tomorrow or Saturday and therefore would likely place us in second place for latest date for 1″ of snow for the season and in fourth place for the latest date for first 1″ of snowfall (in a single day).  Late Sunday and into Monday is going to put the 2011-12 season on thin ice as to whether it can continue to climb these record charts.  A storm system is expected to move across the region, tapping into the relatively cold air that is finally in place to produce snowfall over areas of the Central Plains.  Latest model projections would appear to show 1-3″ of snow for the Kansas City region.  There are still a lot of questions, but models have been in fairly good agreement with the track and progression of this system.  The amount of cold air and therefore snowfall is still being disputed by models and the exact timing could have a large impact.  If snowfall arrives Sunday night we would be cold enough for snow to accumulate, however slightly slower solution that pushes snow to the day on Monday could hinder snowfall greatly.

The latest system to move across the region dropped snowfall for several hours across parts of Kansas and Missouri, however the only good accumulations were found where the snow fell either during the morning (western Kansas) or the following overnight (eastern Missouri).  In between, while snow fell it was during the day and it just could not accumulate despite falling at a similar rate to those that did accumulate snow.

The idea of accumulating snow that could perhaps stick around for at least a little while (a day or so) has me a little excited, after all I grew up in Iowa where it’s very rare to go into January without seeing accumulating snow.  Even after this early week system there appears to be at least two more shortwaves (disturbances) that could produce more precipitation over the Central Plains.  Another update is likely this weekend as the potential for accumulating snow comes into better view with short-range models and ensembles.

Lack of Snow for Winter 2011-12

// February 2nd, 2012 // No Comments » // General Forecast, General Information, Winter Weather

Statistics from all around the continental United States are being shown regarding the lack of significant snowfall or just the plain lack of snowfall for the winter season thus far. Here in Kansas City, and surrounding areas for that matter, it is no different. Kansas City officially has just 0.4″ of snowfall on the season through January 31, which ties 1988-89 for the lowest amount on record. Let’s take a look back at 1988-89 to see just how that season of snowfall went:

1988-89 Snowfall Amounts (Greater than Trace) for Kansas City (Season Total in Parentheses)

November 20 – 0.1″  (0.1″)
December 11 – 0.1″  (0.2″)
January 14 – 0.2″  (o.4″)
February 2 – 0.2″  (0.6″)
February 4 – 0.4″  (1.0″)
February 5 – 2.4″  (3.4″)
February 6 – 0.3″  (3.7″)
February 12 – 0.8″  (4.5″)
February 14 – 0.2″  (4.7″)
February 15 – 0.2″  (4.9″)
February 19 – 0.2″  (5.1″)
February 20 – 1.2″  (6.3″)
February 26 – 0.6″  (6.9″)

This shows the 1988-89 season saw measurable snow on February 2 and again on February 4 to push the seasonable total up to 1.0″.  With no snow in sight for Kansas City today that means by the end of the day the 2011-12 season will officially be the least snowiest season on record through February 2!  How about that for a record…

The next storm system will move across the region on Friday, lingering into Saturday for some, producing widespread precipitation across the Plains.  Currently, and I don’t expect this to change much, the best potential for snow will be across areas of Colorado, western & far north-central Kansas, Nebraska and into Iowa.  At this point for Kansas City it looks very unlikely for us to see any snow at all, let alone any accumulating snowfall.  For laughs and grins let’s go ahead and say we are ‘snow free’ through February 6th (looks likely) and see how we stand on a different record,

Latest Date for 1″ of Accumulation for the Season

1930-31  -  March 1
1933-34  -  February 11
1922-23  -  February 10
2011-12  -  ???  ??
1988-89  -  February 4
1900-01  -  February 1

While it’s hard to say if we can make it to March 1, I personally hope we don’t, it does appear we will be in good contention to make it into the second spot for latest date of 1″ of snow accumulation for the season.  A few other neat notes for the season thus far: December 2011 finished with only 0.1″ of snowfall which ranked Tied-14th for least amount in that month and was the least since December 2006 when there was no snow.  January finished with 0.3″ of snowfall for the month which also ranked 14th for least amount in that month, it is the least amount of snow in January since 1992 (Trace).  January didn’t just have a lack of snow, it had a lack of precipitation overall with only 0.06″ which ranks it as the 5th driest January on record.  Just to throw something else at the lack of winter, January’s average temperature for Kansas City was 6.3 degrees above normal at 35.1 degrees.

Hope you enjoyed the first true update for the new website, let me know what you think!

Welcome to the New Severe Plains

// February 1st, 2012 // No Comments » // General Information

I’ve had this in the works for many, many months and finally decided to just pull the trigger on it and get it going.  Welcome to the new website of SeverePlains.com

The site isn’t yet completely finished, and honestly who knows when it will ever be completely finished (I have plenty of other things going on to keep me busy).  But, it’s a cleaner version, easier to update and upgrade if needed plus finally brings me into the world of using content-management rather then writing my websites with pure html/css code.  My current goals for the website:

Photography section (new web galleries) available this summer -  It’ll catch up on all of the weather and storm chasing images over the years, plus add in some galleries for friends and family to view other images.

Chasing section  -  This may be one of those things that never gets done, as much as I would like to finish it off.  Would require a significant time contribution, but I may work on it here and there and slowly back fill it through the years.  More than likely it is a never ending process…

Links section  -  Feel free to send me links to fill this section up.  I’ve put some in their for a skeleton, but would be glad to add other pages including other chasers pages if requested.

Of course, the main page of the site (news/blog) will be filled up with posts here and there as I find something to write about.  I’m going to try and make this a bit more personable, therefore it won’t always be about the weather or storm chasing.  I may throw in an occasional sports feature, specifically on Iowa State or perhaps just football or basketball in general.  Perhaps just some general news around my area too…  Either way, hope you find some usefulness out of it.