Severe Plains

Foggy & Getting Colder!

// December 30th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

The last several days across the state have been quite gray and dreary looking for the most part. Despite some snowfall over portions of the state, it has been foggy or there has been blowing snow that has never allowed visibilities to go much more than a couple of miles. This fog got very dense last night across much of northwest and north-central Iowa, prompting the NWS offices to issue a dense fog advisory as visibilities were down to near zero! This fog continue through the night across the area, with so much moisture in place allowing snowfall to occur that stuck to everything. Trees are coated with this thick wet snow, along with everything possible seems to have a coating. This fog is likely to continue through the day over some areas of the state, with more snowfall moving in by nightfall.

This light snow may occur across portions of the state, not much accumulation expected anywhere. Western to central Iowa seeing a half-inch to near inch and eastern Iowa also seeing around an inch of snow during the day on Monday. After this quick clipper system moves through, pulling the cold front with it we can expect temperatures to drop into some very chilly ranges. Highs Monday in the near 20 to near 30 range from northwest to southeast, lows from near zero to mid teens. By Tuesday, highs will struggle to get out of the single digits in northwest Iowa with the rest of the state not doing much better only getting into the teens. Tuesday night will start the year off on a very cold note, wind chill values for the morning will be well into the negative teens and twenties over the state. Actual temperature values for when you wake up on Wednesday will range from near zero in the southeast to near -10 in the northwest!

Luckily these temperature won’t last long, as the trough responsible for these will move off to the east during mid-week. By Thursday and Friday you can see highs rising into the mid 20s to mid 30s and then even higher into the lower 40s for the southwest. Currently there isn’t much mention of precip after the early week system and blast of cold air. Enjoy the cold start to the year, but remember it only gets warmer! Have a happy new year!

Snow Advisory: Dec. 28

// December 28th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

A Snow Advisory has been issued for roughly the southeastern half of the state, areas east of a Nebraska City, NE to Prairie Du Chien, WI. Areas just to the west of this line may still see snowfall, but generally around an inch or less of snow accumulation is expected. Those counties that are within the snow advisory are expected to see 2-6 inches of snowfall, with the heaviest amounts in southeast and east-central Iowa.

Latest models have actually indicated less snowfall with this system than previous ones, at least looking at last nights model run. The off-hour model runs that come out during the late night hours also seem to have pulled back on total accumulations. However this doesn’t seem to be enough to deter the NWS offices from pulling back some of their forecasted totals. Latest discussion indicates mainly 1-5 inches within their advisory area, which is still going with the latest forecast and advisory text.

Road conditions are likely to be effected by this system, in fact a majority of the state have at least wet conditions due to frost and snow. Areas of southern and eastern Iowa are likely to see mostly covered roads through the Noon hour until the snow can begin to taper off and the plows can truly plow the roads. Take some time when traveling this morning and even this afternoon as some slick areas may still exist.

Winter Storm: Dec. 27-28

// December 27th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

Yet another low pressure system is going to make its’ way across the plains states, leading to another shot at heavy snowfall over portions of the state of Iowa. Snow should begin to enter the state late this afternoon and throughout the night, lasting into the daytime hours tomorrow for much of eastern Iowa along with some flurries left over for southern Iowa. Areas of the state have been put under a Winter Storm Watch that will likely be upgraded to at least a Snow Advisory later this afternoon. Areas currently not under the watch may still be upgraded to some sort of advisory as the path of this system may go slightly north than the Des Moines forecast office has indicated with their watch area. Models are in line fairly well with the track and amounts from this system, the area of more than 1 inch of snow should be east of a line from Nebraska City, NE through to Rochester, MN. Areas west of that line are likely to only see snow flurries with accumulations less than an inch.

Amounts east of that line area likely to range from 1″ to upwards of 5″ with some half-foot amounts possible in some of the heavier bands of snow. The Davenport NWS has put wording in their forecast that isolated 5-8″ amounts are not out of the question. Models currently paint the heaviest snowfall amounts between 5″ and 7″, this mainly in areas of southeastern and eastern Iowa. For the latest information on the expected amounts check out the ‘weather story’ feature on the DMX and DVN NWS pages that are linked below:

Des Moines NWS Weather Story
Davenport NWS Weather Story

Christmas Snow Advisory

// December 25th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

There has been slight chances of snow in the forecast for Christmas for the past couple of days, but it now looks like areas of at least northwest Iowa will be receiving plenty of Christmas Snow. This area of the state missed out on the snowfall from the previous system that dumped over a half foot of snow in southern and eastern Iowa. Light to moderate snow showers have continued to spread southeast into northwest Iowa this afternoon. Enough moisture has pooled up to prompt the NWS out of Sioux Falls to issue a Snow Advisory for their northwest Iowa counties. The band of snowfall should continue to work southeast through the evening and into the early nighttime hours, a total of 2-4 inches of accumulation are likely in the areas under the snow advisory. This advisory essentially includes counties west of highway 4 and north of highway 20…

Areas that are near this snow advisory will still likely see snowfall accumulations this afternoon and tonight, however total amounts should generally be 1-2 inches. This snowfall may also continue to work into the rest of the state overnight and into tomorrow. Current forecasts only put ~1 inch of accumulation over the rest of the state, although I would not be surprised to see some isolated higher amounts. Some areas of the state may also escape this system with little or no accumulation, but a generally light snowfall should occur over a majority of the state.

Hope everybody enjoys their christmas snowfall, happy holidays!!

Winter Storm: Dec. 22-23

// December 22nd, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

The winter storm that was expected to begin as early as last night has held off its’ punch until this afternoon as heavy snows are beginning in southern Iowa. Last night saw a few stray snow showers make their way through the state, with little accumulation for most areas. The bands of snow around the low pressure system have entered the state early this afternoon and as of the latest radar updates some heavy snow has came into south-central Iowa extending to the Iowa City area.

The Winter Storm Warnings and Snow & Blowing Snow Advisories that were issued last night have been extended until the morning hours tomorrow as this snow has been slow to make its’ way north. Travel conditions are becoming unfavorable over some areas of the state as shown by the road conditions link. Some areas within this heavy snow and winds are producing white out conditions as shown by the webcams across the state.

Current snow totals are going to range from 4-8 inches along the heaviest bands of snow that are likely from south-central Iowa into northeast Iowa. Areas both east and west of that line can see 1-3 inches of snow this evening and overnight, while areas of northwest and a majority of the western third of the state won’t see much of any accumulation. For the latest updates be sure to check out the NWS pages as well as the road conditions maps across the state. This storm isn’t effecting me much at all in northwest Iowa, thus I’ve been busy with other projects. A recap of the storm may be posted tomorrow or at a later date as it looks to be a pretty good near blizzard storm.

Winter Storm: Dec. 21-22

// December 21st, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

Portions of the state are going to be in for a nice winter storm that will effect a lot of their weekend travel. The storm system that has been talked about since the beginning of the week has finally came into focus, providing a forecast that puts portions of the eastern third of the state under a half foot of snow! Other areas of the state are going to see general amounts of snow in the 1-3 inch range.

A low pressure system is likely to develop along the IA/MO borders late tonight and continue to strengthen as it moves northeastward towards the Great Lakes area. This low will setup a strong pressure gradient and thus some fairly gusty winds over much of the state tomorrow. This wind will be accompanied by moderate to heavy snow over central and eastern Iowa, light to moderate snow over western Iowa. All portions of the state may see some hazardous driving conditions when under the snow showers as wind gusts are likely to blow the snow around quite easily during and after its’ fallen. Eastern Iowa will see the heaviest snow bands as it remains within the lows’ deformation zone, allowing for slow moving bands of heavy snow. Total accumulations in the 4-8 inch range are going to be possible, with some locally higher amounts not out of the question in eastern Iowa.

Central Iowa will likely be within a 2-5 inch range of snowfall and western Iowa within a 1-3 inch range of snowfall with areas along the Missouri seeing under an inch in some locations. Where snow does occur expect some slow travel as mentioned the winds will provide some blowing and drifting snow to occur. Currently only winter storm watches have been issued for portions of central/eastern Iowa, expect those to be upgraded later this afternoon. The latest weather story from Des Moines gives a rough estimate of snowfall forecasted:

Weekend Winter Storm Potential

// December 19th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

Latest model runs continue to put this system up in limbo, but a little more consistency in some models are leading to a slightly better idea than yesterday. Current thoughts conclude that this system may be much quicker in moving across the plains as the low develops over the plains and slides into the Great Lakes. This low is still expected to become quite strong over the Great Lakes, but with its’ speed moving across the plains it likely won’t have such of an impact as previously thought.

Snowfall across Iowa is still likely, with some mixed precip still possible over southern and eastern Iowa as well. Snowfall amounts and overall precip amounts aren’t likely to be too excessive, general forecast puts 1-3 inches across much of the state in snowfall amounts. This is a quick and general belief in what the current models seem to be displaying and what NWS offices seem to be going with. A more precise and likely more accurate of snow amounts along with the chances of any mixed precip will be known in later updates. Still should keep an eye on the storm, but it does look like the severity of the storm will not as crippling as previous forecasts may have indicated.

Potent System for Weekend

// December 18th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

As mentioned in the previous post, this weekend holds some potential for a significant winter storm to go over the plains states. This system has been featured in the models for a while, but the exact location of this system has still been in limbo even in current forecasts. Nonetheless, the latest consensus is to bring a low pressure system out of the Rockies just south of Colorado and into the plains by Friday night. This low pressure system continues to the northeast moving near the MO/IA border by Saturday morning and then up towards the Great Lakes by Sunday. This low pressure system is accompanied by a very strong trough which will allow the low to strengthen considerably as it moves over the plains on Saturday into Sunday. Stronger low will likely mean a better chance for significant precip amounts not only along the fronts south/east of it but especially areas that are just north of the front where the deformation zone is setup. One thing this strong low will definitely bring with it is stronger winds, latest forecast discussion from Des Moines has pointed out that on the backside of the low may create blizzard conditions over Iowa.

This track just to the south of northern Iowa is likely to bring some of the heavier snow amounts to the area. Although any change with the track will of course bring a change to where the heaviest snow amounts fall. Areas that receive this heavy snow are likely to not only get the snowfall, but winds to go with it as a strong pressure gradient is likely to setup west of the low. Luckily this low is conjoined with the strong trough in the upper levels, meaning it won’t stick around for long. Current timing of this system looks to effect Iowa mainly on Saturday, of course dependent on the amount of snow and wind behind it means it could continue to have some problems with transportation on Sunday while things get cleared off.

Other areas of the state may not only see the snow, but some mixed precip types are going to be possible along and just to the south of the low. A strong low means strong temperature gradients are likely to be present, meaning that some fairly warm temperatures are likely just to the east and south of the low. Freezing rain, sleet and even rain are all going to be possible along the plains states as this system is going to bring up that warm air to various areas along its’ path.

Not going to get into the issue of how much snow and the exacts on locationing of this storm as it is still just too far out in the forecast. Would of course recommend a very close eye on this system as the weekend is likely one of the busiest of the year with Christmas coming next Tuesday. Will continue to have updates, hopefully daily, as to what the latest forecasts indicate with this system.

A Nice Week… Website Changes

// December 16th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast, General Information

First off, a quick note on some website issues. My gallery pages as you may have noticed are not operational at the moment and I’m currently in the process of unveiling an entire new website and design. I hope to have the new gallery operational by the new year, along with the remainder of the website. Keep checking back here for the latest details and the word on the official unveiling of the new website.

Now to the weather for the week, the last full week of work for most people as Christmas is nearing ever closer. A mainly dry week in store for the state, although a small system may get portions of the state Wednesday night into Thursday. The main focus for a winter storm is currently looking at this weekend, as another potent low may effect the state. Some areas of eastern Iowa are seeing flurries today, Thursday over central & eastern Iowa may also see some flurries or drizzle; neither of these events should be much.

Temperatures throughout the week will be fairly mild, mid 20s to lower 30s on Monday with warm-up continue through Thursday with highs mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the state. Lows in the single digits to lower teens tonight, but a quick change into the mid teens to lower 30s should take place by Monday night. Lows should remain in the mid teens in the north to the mid 20s in the south throughout the week before this weekends storm starts to effect the state.

More information on this weekends storm will be available in later updates…

More Snow!

// December 15th, 2007 // No Comments » // General Forecast

The whole state doesn’t have to worry about it, but portions of southern and eastern Iowa will definitely be on the lookout for some significant accumulations. A winter weather advisory is in effect for areas south of a Nebraska City to Des Moines to Dubuque, 2-5 inches of snowfall is likely in those areas. Areas just north of that line may see light snow with some accumulations of less than 2 inches. Some portions of south-central Iowa may see even higher amounts than the rest of the state, areas including Lamoni and the surrounding counties may see snowfall of up to 7 inches! These areas have been upgraded to a Heavy Snow Warning until mid-afternoon today, as snowfall rates may be several inches per hour.

The remainder of the state that won’t have this snow to deal with will see a nice day, with the sun shining for most of northern Iowa. Temperatures across the state will range from the lower to mid 20s today. Lows tonight will range from the single digits to the mid teens over eastern Iowa where some cloud cover will still be present.

For the latest information on the advisories and warnings, including the texts see the Winter Weather Page from Des Moines NWS.