Severe Plains

Another storm system is affecting areas of the plains already today, areas of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska have had heavy snow reports throughout the afternoon. In some reports, thundersnow was mentioned with the snow accumulating over 3 inches an hour. Highest totals so far have been featured in the Colorado mountains, where over 2 feet of snow just today has occurred. Look for highest snow totals on the plains to be featured from northwest Kansas through central Nebraska, where areas may see over 18 inches of snow. Higher snow amounts may also be seen in central Dakotas, although a foot is likely to be the highest amount possible. The snow will taper off in amounts to the west and east of the heavy bands forecasted in those areas… Other snowfall is likely by Sunday/Monday across central Minnesota although highest amounts there are likely in the 2-5 inch range.

As for Iowa, looks like another rain event for the state through Sunday afternoon. Rain today has tapered off for a while, although more is likely tonight and tomorrow. Several bands of rain are likely to make their way through the state over the weekend, even as temperatures slowly fall during the day on Sunday. Finally by Sunday evening it does look like areas of northwest Iowa may be cold enough to handle some snowfall, although amounts at this time are looking to only be 1-2 inches at most. That snow may make for some slippery conditions, but nothing very hazardous seems likely right now. Nonetheless, travelers for New Year’s parties may want to keep an eye out if anything changes as systems like this could easily change tracks or become slightly cooler or warmer and thus change precipitation form. But, for now the latest forecast is looking like rain even though winter is supposed to be here!

Well if you haven’t been paying attention to the forecasts, another system is making its’ way onto the plains in the next couple of days and has the potential for winter weather once again. Currently, the forecast is varied depending on what model you go with and what TV station or NWS office you listen too. The best choice as of right now is looking at mainly a rain forecast for the state of Iowa, at least until Saturday. Saturday is when the forecast gets a bit trickier, with cold air really moving in as we are northwest of the low. Potential is there for some freezing rain as well as the changeover from rain to snow as the night goes on. Entering the day on Sunday looks to have all snow in the forecast through much of the state, but exact amounts are going to depend on how fast the system moves and how much moisture is still in the atmosphere by this time.

Total amounts are not being discussed at the moment, not at least for areas of IA/MN as well as eastern NE/SD beings the snowfall shouldn’t begin in those areas until Sunday. Thus, with it still that far out in the forecast, the NAM hasn’t yet been able to grasp whether or not the snow will fall or the rain will continue. They do agree on the forecast out to Saturday night, with areas of western/central Nebraska as well as adjacent areas of South Dakota receiving the snowfall. By Sunday the snow begins to make its’ way northeastward as well, with the GFS making the snowline roughly Norfolk, NE to Sioux Falls continuing to the Twin Cities. Those snowfall amounts just north of the line aren’t terribly impressive yet looking at basic snow ratios, but looking at BUFKIT data for better forecasted amounts there may be potential for 6-9 inches of snow in those areas.

Still a lot of things to be worked out, areas of NE/SD and others to be affected by this storm already before the work week is over can start to hone in on the amounts. Areas further east are going to have to wait at least another 24 hours to see how the NAM treats this storm and thus the forecasted snow amounts become better defined. Look for another update in that 24 hours for the areas of Iowa to have their first snowfall forecast from this system!

Hope everybody has a great Christmas and safe travels to wherever you are headed, although most of your traveling may have been done over the weekend. The forecast for Christmas looks good, featuring temperatures from the lower to mid 30s throughout the state of Iowa. Christmas lows should drop to the lower teens in northwest Iowa, while some lower 20s in the southeast. The only foreseeable problem with the forecast may be the slightly breezy winds, northwest winds 10-20 mph seem likely across the state with some gusts likely getting up to that 25 mph mark.

Dry week until Thursday/Friday when the next system should be making its’ way onto the plains and thus bringing the chance once again for some type of winter weather. Of course this far out it is hard to make a good estimation of how the system looks and thus I won’t say too much more about it at this point. Just to keep a watch out as things may be able to get a little interesting before the weekend…

Well, at least for the portions of Iowa that were expecting a sign of winter this was a big time snowfall bust. The system was there and it put down plenty of precipitation, unfortunately just not in the frozen form of snow. Instead areas of northwest Iowa and much of the surrounding areas ended up with rain, some freezing rain on occasions and then yesterday into today some dense fog. Other areas to the north in central Minnesota did get a good mix of winter precip along with our areas to the west. Some areas of central/western Nebraska did get close to a foot of snow, with areas of Colorado getting snow measured in feet!

All in all, another winter storm bust for some areas of the plains… Currently there is a slight chance of some snow just before Christmas that may be able to make some things white. But, don’t be hoping for anything as it certainly looks like it will be a green/brown christmas instead of the hopeful white one.

Update #4

Rain has fallen most of the night and is currently still occurring, the roadways are wet and the ground is very mushy with the large amounts of rain that have fallen over the past 24 hours. Winter Weather Advisory still in effect for the counties of Dickinson, Osceola and Lyon counties in northwest Iowa, surrounding areas of southwest Minnesota as well as South Dakota are in at least an advisory as well. Look for raining conditions to continue into the afternoon, then changing over to snow as the temperature begins to drop around 3 pm today… This will likely cause some freezing conditions on roadways making travel hazardous once again. Snowfall amounts are still variable with warmer than expected temperatures so far in the area, thus rainfall turning over to light snow is the likely wording you will hear today. Thus, icy conditions are the reasoning behind the advisory.

Only rain here to speak of, had ice last night but with slightly warmer temperatures and the rain that has melted off. Look for icy conditions to develop once again this evening/tonight however…

Update #3

As winter official begins with December 21st, winter also arrives with the feeling of ice and the forecast of more ice/snow. Currently sitting at temperatures right at freezing, with light rain falling for the past couple of hours is creating some hazardous conditions finally. Roadways in northwest Iowa are beginning to freeze over, thus partly covered with ice conditions probably exist across many of the roads. The ice is also audible thanks to the wind which is slowly swaying the trees giving the all ominous sound of crackling. So at least a light layer of ice exists across the area…

Winter Weather Advisory still in effect for Iowa counties north of highway 20 and west of highway 4, although icy conditions do exist just east of highway 4 as well. Although this advisory does not begin until 6 am, as you can tell the conditions will deteriorate rapidly in some areas, still looking for light accumulations of ice throughout the night and morning, potentially with some rain before turning over to all snow with 2-4 inches of accumulation possible.

Update #2

Light rain occurred off and on throughout the afternoon, total accumulation here was .03 inches. Temperature has slowly dropped since 3 pm this afternoon, we are now sitting just above freezing at 33 degrees. Expect another band of rain to work its’ way into northwest Iowa over the next couple of hours as it is currently near Onawa, IA and spread back to the southeast. This should work its’ way north and thus producing a little more rain on surfaces that may potentially freeze later tonight as the temperature continues to drop.

Expect this light rain to continue, potentially freezing during the early morning hours before turning over to snow. Snowfall amounts in areas over northwest Iowa will range from a dusting to 6 inches over extreme northwest Iowa. Just to name a few cities and their forecasted amounts:

Sioux City: 1-3 Inches
LeMars: 2-4 Inches
Sheldon: 4-7 Inches
Storm Lake: 2-4 Inches
Spencer: 3-6 Inches
Spirit Lake: 3-6 Inches
Estherville: 2-4 Inches

Update #1

The NWS out of Sioux Falls has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for areas of northwest Iowa tonight through Thursday evening.

The counties of Lyon, Sioux and Plymouth are under this advisory from 10 pm tonight through 6 pm Thursday; Temperatures just above freezing will halt any freezing rain that was possible this morning, thus mostly rain falling this afternoon before temperatures begin to drop once again. This rain should change over to snow tonight, with heavy snow possible tomorrow morning, total accumulations at this time are forecasted to be 4-7 inches…
Other counties within the FSD warning area, including Osceola, Dickinson, O’Brien, Clay, Cherokee, Buena Vista and Ida are also under the winter weather advisory from 3 am Thursday until Midnight Thursday. Areas of freezing rain and snow should move into the area tonight, becoming all snow by Thursday morning where total snow accumulations should reach 2-4 inches. Some light ice accumulations are also possible before the snow changeover…
The rest of the state will likely be looking at mainly rain throughout this system, however counties nearby ones under the advisories will likely see a changeover to snow on Thursday as well, but only an inch or two seems likely at the moment.

Currently precipitation is rotating around this low that is centered in southwestern corner of Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle. The low should move northeast into central Kansas this afternoon giving latest pressure falls over the plains. This is putting the deformation zone, or any area near the low that will be under nearly constant precipitation over most of the state of Nebraska as well as the mountains of Colorado. Other precipitation is moving north through eastern Kansas as well as Missouri, should begin to enter the state of Iowa this afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible in southern Iowa with this system, luckily most of this will fall as rain and not freezing rain like it was last night in areas of KS/OK/TX.

Only some light rain this morning here at my house, expecting more precipitation to slowly work its’ way into the area this afternoon and the main core of the storm to begin late tonight. Any slight shift in the path could affect the amounts of snow/ice, so although this current forecast looks good, don’t be surprised to here any changes this afternoon as the low continues to move.

The last couple of hours have been a flurry of Winter Storm Watches that have been issued for much of the western plains states. The watches now extend into northwestern Iowa as Sioux Falls just released their watch indicating a significant winter storm may be on its’ way. Currently the storm system is affecting areas of the southwest and southern plains states, mainly Texas/Oklahoma and into the Rockies. Ice Storm Warnings as well as Winter Storm Warnings are posted for the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma panhandle, with ice accumulations expected to be over a 1/4 of an inch. This storm will move north tonight/Tuesday and setup somewhere in Nebraska before moving off to the east on Wednesday over some portion of Iowa.

Currently the forecasted track is still fairly variable, as the system has yet to make its’ way north to setup for its’ trip east, it is quite possible for the track to change slightly either north or south. Thus, no solid forecast amounts for ice or snow have been made for the northern plains quite yet. Early indications do have areas of eastern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota with a potential 3-6 inches of snow at least. That to go along with some ice accumulations early in the storm. Northwest Iowa as well as extreme southwest Minnesota currently on on the forecast of significant ice accumulations, potentially above a 1/4 inch. Snow totals aren’t as great in this area, but 3 inches or more could easily be possible. Another update will be likely tomorrow morning and afternoon, most likely as these watches are switched over to some type of warning. In the meantime, the latest Winter Storm Watch texts from throughout the nation can be read here: NWS WSW Text’s

Well although there are plenty of people who don’t like the snow, most of them still want a white Christmas and as of now very few have that. So, what does the forecast say about this? Well it shows that some areas of the plains may get there shot at a white Christmas thanks to this next system midweek this week. Before I go on about the track of this system and any type of precipitation, I will put the nice disclaimer that the track is highly likely to change at least somewhat in which could change what an area gets as far as precipitation goes and with the change in track/strength the temperature profiles from this storm are likely to change and thus have a change in potential precipitation type.

Now as for this system, a low pressure system breaking off from the southern jet stream should move nearly northward from the Texas panhandle into the Nebraska panhandle or at least some portion of NE. This type of low is called a Texas Hooker, sorry just had to share the great name. Once this system makes its’ way northward, which is likely to occur during the day on Tuesday, it will be picked up by a shortwave from the north. This will likely give the system upper level support that it needs to strengthen during the night Tuesday and into Wednesday as it starts to move towards the east across Nebraska and into Iowa. The track of this system should then take it into the Great Lakes region, but as it does show most of the support for the low seems to be taken away and thus weakening is expected. So, in review, areas of the western Plains are likely to be affected by this system Tuesday night into Wednesday with the potential of light freezing rain as well as snow. Snow amounts just beyond the mountains in CO and into western Nebraska and western Kansas are likely to be in the 6-12 inch range. Other areas of NE/KS and areas southeast are likely to see significant amounts of rain, over an inch likely.

As this system moves across the plains, winter weather will potentially affect areas of Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota for the most part. As the low moves across the central portions of the state as far as the current forecast goes, the areas to the south/east and thus southeast of the low will likely receive rain as the main precipitation type. Just to the north, northwest and west of the low, with warmer air still residing in some parts of the atmosphere the potential will likely be there for freezing rain. Further north of the low, approx. 75-100 miles and beyond you will then see more light snow likely with more significant snows possible northwest and west of the low about that same distance and beyond. But, as you will likely guess, the most significant winter weather that will come into play will be the freezing rain. I should get another update up tomorrow night or sometime on Tuesday to give a better idea of the track and potential hazardous conditions. For now, definitely need to keep an eye on this system as it does hold potential…